Straits Under Siege: China Seizes Logistics Corridors Amid Supply Chain Collapse

This month, the security of global supply chains has been directly threatened by a sharp escalation in geopolitical tensions and a resurgence of attacks on critical infrastructure. The resumption of the American blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with Iranian retaliatory strikes and attacks on commercial vessels off Yemen, has revived risks on strategic energy and maritime routes. Simultaneously, physical and cyber threats have targeted airports, power grids and water systems in Europe, Australia and the United States, highlighting the systemic vulnerability of transport infrastructure.

In this context, competition for control of logistics corridors is intensifying. China has pursued its strategic expansion in Africa, signing major port agreements in Angola and Sudan to establish regional hubs. On the decarbonization front, signals are mixed: while significant subsidies are being released for sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) in the Netherlands, the United Kingdom is considering lowering its targets for electric vehicles. Finally, regional integration initiatives are progressing, notably in South America with a single sky aviation project, while climate disasters in Europe have highlighted the now central role of logistics in crisis management.

Escalation of tensions and direct threats to critical infrastructure

The period was marked by a sharp deterioration in transport security on a global scale, against a backdrop of geopolitical tensions and hybrid threats.

The confrontation between the United States and Iran has reached a new level, directly impacting maritime flows. On 15 July, the United States resumed its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a decision following Iranian strikes on American bases and President Trump's promise to restore the blockade (Premium Times Nigeria, 15/07 ; Africa News, 14/07). Tehran retaliated by threatening to target energy sites in the Gulf (Livemint, 02/08). This escalation caused an immediate increase in oil prices, which reached a one-month peak on 14 July (Washington Post, 14/07). To contain disruptions in its domestic market, the American administration extended for 90 days a waiver from the Jones Act, allowing foreign vessels to transport goods between American ports (Livemint, 11/08). Maritime insecurity also manifested itself off Yemen, where an Indian vessel sank on 4 August after being struck by a projectile (Livemint, 04/08).

At the same time, transport and energy infrastructure became the target of multiple threats. In Germany, the discovery on 11 August of an explosive-laden drone at Leipzig airport highlighted the vulnerability of airport hubs to asymmetric physical attacks (Süddeutsche Zeitung, 11/08). The cyber threat was also significant: the Australian Signals Directorate (ASD) warned on 14 July of Russian espionage operations targeting the country's power grids, banks and hospitals (The Australian, 14/07), while in the United States, dozens of municipal water distribution systems fell victim to a coordinated cyberattack (NYT, 30/07). This accumulation of threats strengthened political awareness: Ireland announced its desire to make maritime critical infrastructure security a priority of its upcoming European Union presidency (Euractiv France, 15/07).

China consolidates its grip on global logistics corridors

China continues to methodically strengthen its presence on strategic logistics axes, particularly in Africa. On 20 July, Angola signed agreements worth 900 million dollars with Chinese companies to develop the Barra do Dande free trade zone, near the capital Luanda. The objective is to transform the country into a logistics hub for southern and central Africa (Bloomberg Markets, 20/07). A few days earlier, on 14 July, Sudan had signed a memorandum of understanding with China for the development of its maritime ports, thus consolidating Beijing's position in the Red Sea (AL-MONITOR, 14/07).

This investment strategy contrasts with the integration difficulties of other regional blocs. An editorial in Premium Times Nigeria (25/07) thus criticizes the inaction of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), described as "sleepy" after 51 years of existence, for its inability to develop railway networks and coastal transport that would truly connect the economies of its member countries. Chinese advance is not only logistical but also industrial: an analysis from 14 July highlights how China's massive investment strategy in electric vehicles, launched twenty years ago, is putting Western automakers in great difficulty today (The Conversation, 14/07).

Decarbonization: between regulatory commitment and industrial obstacles

The energy transition in transport is advancing unevenly, hampered by technological, security and political challenges.

In aviation, financing for sustainable fuels (SAF) is becoming clearer, but its implementation is a source of tension. The European Commission approved on 30 July Dutch state aid of 290 million euros to support SAF production, in line with the ReFuelEU Aviation regulation (DG CNECT, 30/07). By contrast, Italy, which announced its intention to seek 14.9 billion euros through the SAFE mechanism, was strongly criticized by the Commission for delays in clarifying the allocation of these funds, deemed "not adequate" (ANSA, 28/07 ; Euractiv France, 28/07). These deployment difficulties are added to a fundamental challenge: achieving SAF targets will require a "major technological transformation" that the industry is still struggling to initiate (FlightGlobal, 27/07).

Vehicle electrification is facing headwinds. In the United Kingdom, a government consultation is considering reducing the target for zero-emission vehicle sales from 80% to 50% by 2030. According to an analysis by Carbon Brief (12/08), this weakening could cost 3 billion pounds sterling per year to British consumers and increase CO2 emissions by 7.4 million tonnes in 2030. Battery production safety remains a major concern: a new fire broke out on 20 July at the AESC gigafactory in Lambres-lez-Douai in France, illustrating the operational risks of this emerging industry (La Voix du Nord, 20/07). Facing these challenges, innovations are emerging, such as the diagnostic technology developed by French start-up Entroview to extend battery life (Actu-Environnement, 30/07).

Reconfiguration of competition in rail and aviation

New competitive dynamics and regional integration projects are reshaping the landscape of transport infrastructure.

The rail sector is witnessing increased competition. In Europe, Italian operator Trenitalia has confirmed its ambition to launch a Paris-London service by 2029, with the support of investors, which would end the historic monopoly on this cross-Channel route (Railway Gazette International, 08/08). Furthermore, a comparative analysis highlighted the success of the Moroccan TGV Al Boraq (in terms of costs, timelines and financing) compared to the troubles of the California project, illustrating divergences in capacity to deliver major infrastructure projects (San Francisco Chronicle, 26/07).

In the aviation sector, a significant breakthrough took place in South America. On 15 July, Brazil, Paraguay, Argentina and Chile signed a memorandum of understanding laying the foundations for a "South American Single Sky" (ALAS). The initiative aims to create a more open and liberalized air transport market, with a working group tasked with proposing concrete measures within a year (Agência Brasil, 15/07). In the United States, last-mile logistics reached a new stage with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) approval of the commercial operation of a drone delivery service for DoorDash (Washington Post, 01/08).

Climate resilience: logistics at the heart of crisis management

Large-scale natural disasters, exacerbated by climate change, reveal the critical role of logistics in protecting populations and ensuring continuity of services. The mega-fires that ravaged more than 42,000 hectares in the Gironde, France, in July, required the unprecedented evacuation of more than 220,000 people. An analysis of these operations concluded that the key factor for success was no longer simply the capacity to fight fires, but rather logistical organization to manage mass evacuations, emergency accommodation and the maintenance of essential services (The Conversation FR, 29/07). This experience, which echoes earlier disasters such as Hurricane Katrina in 2005, demonstrates that preventive logistics planning has become a national security issue in the face of events that exceed traditional crisis management capacities.

Watch

• Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz: The evolution of the confrontation between the United States and Iran and its impact on navigation security and energy prices.
• ZEV targets in the United Kingdom: The final decision of the British government regarding the potential downward revision of the zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate for 2030.
• South American Single Sky: The first proposals from the working group of the ALAS agreement, expected within the next 12 months to materialize the liberalization of air transport in the region.
• EU ETS review: The launch of preparatory work for the review clauses of the EU emissions trading system scheduled for 2026, which will concern in particular the maritime and aviation sectors.
• Lyon-Turin line: The security situation on the construction sites of the railway line following recent clashes and the visit by the Italian Prime Minister.

Photo: Chris Leipelt / Unsplash