This month, the technological confrontation between the United States and China reached a new level, marked by an escalation in export controls. Washington restricted access to advanced artificial intelligence models from Anthropic for national security reasons, an unprecedented measure. Beijing retaliated by sanctioning ten American technology companies and expanding its own control regime to target "choke points" in global supply chains.
In parallel, American economic diplomacy underwent a major shift with the temporary suspension of oil sanctions against Iran, coupled with the release of 12 billion dollars in frozen funds, as part of negotiations on the nuclear program.
On the investment front, the Saudi sovereign wealth fund issued a public warning, deeming European regulations "harmful" to foreign investors, a strong signal as many countries tighten their screening regimes. Finally, multilateral and regional trade processes show signs of tension: the EU-Mercosur agreement is blocked by legal challenges within the EU, while the World Trade Organization agreed to form a panel to arbitrate a dispute between China and India over solar and information technology.
United States-China: the escalation of the technology war passes through export controls
June was marked by a significant intensification of sino-American technological confrontation, with the two powers honing their export control arsenal as a tool of foreign policy and economic security.
The most disruptive measure came from the United States. The American government issued a non-public "export control directive" that forced the artificial intelligence (AI) company Anthropic to block access to its most advanced models (Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5) to all non-American users (justsecurity.org, 15/06/2026). This decision, motivated by fears of "circumvention of model security controls," constitutes a major break. For the first time, the American government is using export control laws not for physical goods or specific software, but to restrict access to a general-purpose AI model for national security purposes. This action, likely based on the 2018 Export Controls Reform Act (ECRA), positions AI as a highly sensitive dual-use good and signals a shift from the previous administration's policy of non-intervention. Its implications are global, forcing technology companies and their international clients to navigate an increasingly fragmented and politicized regulatory landscape.
China's response was swift. A few weeks after the Pentagon added new Chinese companies to its blacklist, Beijing imposed trade sanctions on ten American technology companies, including drone manufacturers and companies related to rare earths. These companies are prohibited from exporting "dual-use" articles to the United States (France24 (English), 22/06/2026).
More structurally, China is quietly expanding its own export control regime beyond rare earth minerals. The objective is to target crucial "choke points" in key industries of the United States and its allies (Washington Post, 17/06/2026). This proactive strategy aims to equip Beijing with greater leverage in the event of future trade wars, while protecting its own critical supply chains. For multinational companies, this means an increased risk of sudden supply disruptions across a wider range of products than semiconductors or rare earths alone.
Economic diplomacy: American détente with Iran, sanctions in Africa
Alongside the confrontation with China, American diplomacy carried out a spectacular reversal toward Iran. Washington announced the suspension of sanctions on Iranian oil exports and committed to unlocking 12 billion dollars in frozen Iranian funds (Al Jazeera English, 23/06/2026). This decision, presented as a gesture of good faith in the context of peace negotiations over a 60-day period, follows Tehran's commitment to allow international nuclear inspections again (France24 (English), 23/06/2026).
The impact of this decision is immediate for global energy markets, opening the way for a return of Iranian crude. For economic actors, this creates both opportunities and uncertainties. If the détente is confirmed, it could relieve pressure on energy prices and open new commercial prospects. However, the temporary nature (60 days) of the sanctions suspension introduces considerable political risk, with companies needing to assess the sustainability of this relaxation before committing. The American administration must also deal with internal opposition, embodied by figures such as J.D. Vance, who criticize these openings (Al Jazeera English, 22/06/2026).
Illustrating the targeted and versatile nature of its sanctions policy, Washington simultaneously sanctioned Ethiopian officials due to persistent tensions in the Tigray region (Africa News, 18/06/2026). This measure shows that economic pressure tools remain a pillar of American foreign policy, applied differentially depending on geopolitical issues.
Foreign direct investment: Gulf sovereign wealth funds signal regulatory risks
An alarm signal was raised this month on the international investment front. Saudi Arabia's sovereign wealth fund, the Public Investment Fund (PIF), one of the world's largest investors, publicly warned that the tightening of European regulation "harms" foreign investors (Financial Times, 18/06/2026).
Although the criticism is specifically aimed at Europe, its message is global. It reflects growing concern among major capital providers (notably from the Gulf and Asia) in the face of the rise of foreign direct investment (FDI) screening mechanisms, foreign subsidies regulations (such as the EU's Foreign Subsidies Regulation), and more broadly, the "economic security" agenda in Western countries. This statement highlights the dilemma for developed economies: how to protect their strategic interests without discouraging foreign capital that they need to finance their energy and digital transitions. For companies seeking to attract sovereign investors, this warning underscores the importance of a regulatory environment perceived as stable and predictable.
Trade agreements and disputes: WTO active, EU-Mercosur stalled
The global trade system continues to evolve on several fronts, with contrasting developments at the multilateral and regional levels.
Within the World Trade Organization (WTO), the Dispute Settlement Body (DSB) formalized the creation of a panel of experts to examine a complaint filed by China against India (Deccan Chronicle, 23/06/2026). The dispute concerns Indian measures deemed protectionist in the solar energy and information technology (IT) sectors. This procedural advance, while routine, shows that major emerging economies continue to use WTO mechanisms to resolve their disputes, despite persistent blockages of its Appellate Body.
In contrast, the mega trade agreement between the European Union and Mercosur is facing serious legal and political obstacles. Two events published this month in the EU's Official Journal testify to this: on the one hand, a formal request for the European Parliament's opinion on the agreements and, on the other hand, an action for annulment initiated by Poland against the decision of the EU Council concerning the interim trade agreement (EU Law Live, 22/06/2026). These procedures highlight the deep divisions within the EU and the complexity of ratification, indefinitely delaying the entry into force of the agreement and frustrating South American partners. This case serves as a reminder that for modern trade agreements, negotiation is only the first step; internal ratification has become a political battleground in its own right.
At the same time, other bilateral negotiations are progressing, such as those between India and the United Kingdom, which are seeking to overcome obstacles related to safeguard measures on steel and the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) (Deccan Chronicle, 08/06/2026). On the North American side, Donald Trump's statements have created "confusion" in nascent trade negotiations with Mexico, illustrating the volatility and unpredictability that political factors can inject into trade relations (NYT (Bluesky), 10/06/2026).
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